The Sum of The First 5 Odds
Welcome to 2025!
I don’t think there’s much point in sugarcoating it. 2024 was a rough year for collector cars. Certain parts in the marketplace did well, but it was a much smaller range than normal and both sides were being squeezed through for the majority of it. The major car weeks were pretty much all down and although a few of the auction houses reported upward momentum, a lot of this was due to increased volume. Even towards the end of the year, Bring-a-Trailer was looking less and less bulletproof. Needless to say, there was a lot of folks (myself included) that were very happy to see the ball drop at midnight on Jan 1.
Here’s a couple of things that I think are likely to happen as we navigate our way through 2025…..
1. British cars are going to have a tough year (with one notable exception).
I love classic British cars. Probably my second all-time favorite segment overall. However, we are starting to reach a couple of critical curves in the road here and that’s likely to make for a pretty rocky ride.
Although British cars certainly have their charm, that charm can present some challenges on modern roads. For the money spent, these things can likely be avoided by looking elsewhere if your goal is to retain a similar air of classic motoring. This breaks down to leaky tops, wooden brakes, “hard” steering, reliability, etc. Couple this with the fact that the people that are entering the market don’t have the same frame of reference or emotional connection to names like Austin Healey and Triumph and so on, so it makes for a combination of things that may not create the world’s most favorable set of circumstances here.
Also, I think a lot of these cars got really overpriced in the last couple of years too. Especially towards the lower end. If you bought in 18 years ago, you’re likely to be fine. If you bought in 4 years ago, it may be a different story. When you hop on Craigslist or any other online marketplace and see a 1968 MGB GT (which is still a car I absolutely adore) priced the same as cars offering significantly more creature comforts, more size, more reliability and everything else, you got to start questioning where things are headed.
The fact is, there’s easier things to live with out there for the same or less money and supply is high. I think we all know how that line goes.
There’s a possible exception and it’s one that I’m kind of already starting to see play out. I do suspect it to be short-term, but anything’s possible. The marque in question here is Jaguar.
With Jaguars’ recent attempted rebrand train wreck and the two utterly laughable clown cars that they presented to try and offset this, I think they have inadvertently created a scenario where people are actively interested in protecting the heritage of the brand. Almost immediately, I started seeing YouTubers getting into various projects involving examples of Britain’s great cat and people posting more on social media about them. I think there could be some short-term opportunities for the more beloved lines like the E-type and even some lesser loved ones that gatekeep the entryway to their corner of the marketplace, for example the XJS or S III XJ6 (which I still maintain is a fabulously, fabulously underrated sedan).
I think there’s the potential for Jaguar to have a moment here on the classic market. For how long, who knows? With that brand, it’s likely that anything’s going to be possible in 2025. All we can do is hope for the best.
3. The American Muscle market will get pretty close to bottoming out.
If you’re a fan of American muscle, it hasn’t been a particularly great out there lately. Of course, the blue-chip stuff is always going to be desirable and reasonably stable, but the more run of the mill type of muscle cars out in the world seem to have had their day. The market’s been flooded, traditional buyers in that segment have been stagnant and they’re still above and beyond the reach of entry level enthusiasts in most cases.
This said, as I’ve referenced for years and will continue to reference, I think muscle cars have more staying power than their previous counterparts. This is due to their relationship with pop culture. They still consistently show up in video games, they’re more often than not still the cool car in movies and they even continue to show up in music videos. Muscle car content still generates a tremendous amount of engagement on social media and on YouTube too.
I don’t think we’re quite all the way there yet and I’m not sure we’ll see it all the way bottom out by the end of 25, but I think we’re going to get pretty close.
There will be that intersection where what people who are incoming are willing to pay will intersect with what the cars are actually selling for and I suspect that will breathe new life into this segment as well.
5. Gallery style car shows in urban and industrial areas will start to become a serious trend.
Something I’ve noticed in West Coast cities that I’ve traveled to primarily over the last few years is how redevelopment and revitalization efforts are being emphasized in aging and/or historical industrial areas of mid-sized and large cities.
I’m clearly not the only one that’s noticed this as well as over the last few months, I also notice I’ve been attending a lot more car shows in places like this. Although the MOs are similar, the concept is just plain cool and it feels really fresh and interesting. Indoor/outdoor multi-use spaces with creative and dramatic lighting and eclectic and vibey backgrounds, live DJs, etc really add an element of coolness to what is something that is already inherently cool anyway.
Another piece of this puzzle that I genuinely appreciate is the way that cars tend to be displayed in these settings. There’s actual space involved and there’s a semi lack of symmetry that almost makes everything feel more organic and authentic. There’s almost always a lot less cars overall too.
I would assume almost everybody on this list would consider the automobile to be a form of art, so why not treat them this way? In this new format, that’s what it feels like. It more closely resembles an installation than a cruise-in and it’s something that I sincerely hope catches on and in more places. With the power of social media and how unbelievably photogenic these events tend to be, I suspect they probably will.
7. Gen-Z will start to jump in the game for real.
One of the things that I have been enjoying the most over the process of trying to restructure Arizona Car Week has been getting out in the world and spending more time around actual people at events. I’ll be the first to admit, this is not one of my favorite things to do.
After I’ve spent 90 hours doing car stuff throughout the week, the last thing I want to do is get up at 4:00 AM on the one day that I actually have the ability to sleep more than a couple of hours and go stand in a cold parking lot someplace looking at more cars. This experience however, has been something I’ve personally found a lot of value in being forced to do as of late.
The most noticeable part of that for me has been coming into contact and then partnering with people that fall into the Gen Z category. That group has so much passion for cool cars and they’re so willing to take chances and have experiences and do new things, it’s become something that’s very inspiring and very refreshing for me to be around.
There’s no ego, there’s no pessimism, it’s just a desire to do things with cars and have a good time. Whereas, with other groups I tend to hear a lot of excuses as to why things won’t work, with this group there seems to be a real desire to just go for it and figure it out as you go and that’s been really contagious and really positive.
There’s a lack of pretentiousness here that I think opens up a lot of potential for car connections too. Especially as (as stated above), for some of the more traditional segments are hitting their low points, this is a good opportunity for younger people to get into and experience those cars for themselves and likely build a lot of enthusiasm and refresh those marketplaces therein.
People in this age range certainly have their preferences as to what they are most interested in (retro Mercedes, BMW and Porsche it seems primarily), but for basically their whole lives they’ve also been inundated with cool mid-century cars in video games and in movies and there’s likely to be a lot of possibilities there too.
Point is, there’s never been more areas of entry for people to get into this hobby and this lifestyle than there is right now. The desire is clearly there with this group and the cars are too. From where I sit, the future looks very bright.
9. The overall collector car marketplace will begin to rebound.
It’s been more than 7 years since Motorwerks opened our doors and since then, we’ve survived a lot and we’ve seen a few things swing back and forth too. I don’t think anything quite as widely as what we saw in 2024, but one thing I’ve noticed since I’ve been doing this, is that we tend to be about 3 months ahead of everything else.
The reality is, when the major components of this hobby and this industry start feeling differently about certain things, they either want to start buying ads and doing more marketing or they want to stop everything completely, depending on where they think the market is going. Three months lead seems to be the magic number for this occurrence most of the time and it’s something I’ve been actively paying attention to for a long time.
Shortly after Thanksgiving, our phones started ringing once again. Are people being committal and throwing huge sums of money at us? Not really, but there’s a lot of inquiry and discovery type of calls and meetings going on and it seems people are significantly more comfortable than they were even as recently as September or October. Everybody is basically saying the same thing too. They want to get into January and get through the various political trifles and tomfooleries and they want to get business moving again.
Will they stick with this? Time will tell, but it definitely feels like we’re through the worst of it.
The number 25 is the sum of the first 5 odd numbers. Let’s hope things get even once we’re through it.
That’s it for this week…
Darin Roberge